End of the Year Stats 2008

Alright! Today marked the very last day of trading for 2008 and I'm reporting how I faired for the year:

I traded a total of 110 securities:

24 were losses (22%), an average of $90.14 per loss (pretty high)

86 were wins (78%), an average of $42.50 per win (lower than my average loss)

End of year ROI: 48%

I'm glad that I had so few losses, however, obviously my goal is going to be to get my loss amounts much lower in the coming trading year. I'm doing well, but with my loss average that high, I'm fighting harder than I have to. I aim to pick better and get out of a losing trade sooner. Pretty basic!

I am particularly excited about 2009 because I've been able to increase my capital significantly. I've increased it not only through earnings, but I've also been infusing funds into my account regularly throughout the year and anticipate having an even more successful year!

FARO - Sold

Sold FARO at $16.86 for a gain per share of $0.46 and a return on investment of 2.8%. I didn't get the full 5% I wanted out of it but I decided I'd rather short sell through its next pullback rather than wait for it to rally back up to the 5% goal I'd set.

So, that's something I'll be looking for - the right entry point for a short sell of FARO.

Happy New Year! Stay safe!

Today's trading 12/30/08

Well, today was generally a positive day - some of the stocks I've been holding that were in the negative over Christmas are now back in the black by a few bucks. 

Given the rally at the end of the day, I'm willing to bet that the last trading day of December will be another up day. 

I'm looking forward to wrapping up the year and starting 2009!

Last few trading Days of December

Alright, I'm back in the game after a week of being ill. I monitored my stocks periodically but didn't sell or buy anything new over the past week.

I'm a little leery of AGO and am just watching my other holdings. 

I'm not sure what the market is going to do, if anything this week - the last of the year.

I'll get back to finding new stocks to recommend in the New Year, there's not much point at the moment.

I'll update if I make any changes!

Happy Trading!

Watchlist & Stock Picks 12/22/08

Looks like today's a down day which makes sense after the past few up days. I'm going to hold what I have through the pullback and see who gets to stay after the next rally starts.

Happy Trading!

SDXC - Bought

Bough SDXC at $7.44.

Watchlist & Stock Picks 12/19/08

I'm going to keep what I've got until something really moves. Holiday trading is coming up next week which is usually pretty dead as the pro's are on vacation. I'll update as I see more stocks that are making the pattern that I like.

LONG:

ALK
DIS
FARO
GSIC
MTH
APOG
CMI
XME
AUO
BJS
SYMC
SDXC
ANGO

UPDATE:

I'm eyeing:

QQQQ

SDXC - on a pullback if I get in today.

Watchlist & Stock Picks 12/18/08

Well, we've got another down morning - looks like this is tending to be the norm. On those that I'm watching that are trending up - the support and resistance aren't very far apart, thus once we have an up day we've reached resistance so, naturally it seems that the next day is going to be a down day that will hit support. I hope that support and resistance start to widen up!

I'm going to continue to watch what I've got since I'm trying to execute some real swing trading on these, and I've put a few back on that might look familiar now that they're making the right candlestick patterns:

LONG:

ALK
DIS
FARO
GSIC
MTH
APOG
CMI
XME

NEW:

AUO - back on the list but its pattern isn't very steady
BJS - just had an moving average cross over yesterday
SYMC
SDXC
ANGO - only if it pullsback reasonably - it's looking a little overbought so let's wait for the next few down days to get in.

FSS - Sold

I just sold FSS at $8.23 for a gain per share of $0.53 and a return on investment of 6.9%

RECAP:

FSS B @ $7.70
FSS S @ $8.23

FARO - Bought

Just bought FARO at $16.40.

Watchlist & Stock Picks 12/17/08

I'm going to continue to watch yesterday's picks, minus a few, despite the downturn this morning. Once we really start to make a move I'm sure new picks will emerge.

LONG:

QQQQ
AAWW
CLF
XME
MTH
CMI
DIS
FSS
FARO
AGO
GSIC

ALK - Sold

Sold ALK at $26.94 for a gain per share of $1.42 and a return on investment of 5.56%.

RECAP:

ALK B @ $25.52
ALK S @ $26.94

AGO - Bought

Just bought AGO at $12.37.

Watchlist & Stock Picks 12/16/08

Well, I'd considered yesterday possibly being a down day but hadn't really planned on it. I'm going to keep watching what I've got and see if I can make a plan from there.

Happy trading!

UPDATE:

I'm realling liking:

LONG:

AGO

MTH

DIS - I'm already in but it made the set-up a few days ago, slow mover so I would say now is still a good time to enter.

Watchlist & Stock Picks 12/15/08

Alright, I'm still feeling the longs today. I only have a few new ones added, we're watching the familiar ones waiting for the set-up. I've divided them:

LONG:

The following stocks will be good candidates if they go up tomorrow making the set-up, if not I'll most likely be removing some from the list:

QQQQ

AAWW

CLF

XME

MTH

CMI

DIS

FSS

APOG

FARO

AGO

GSIC

This one has already made the set-up - I can't be sure on how much more it will go up in this rally - could be a little, could be a lot!

ALK

Market Trend Change

I am excited about the potential market trend change because that means we'll get to truly swing trade. The general idea behind swing trading is that you get in (a long) during a rally, exit at the top of the rally, let the stock pullback for a few days, then get in again for the next rally. If you execute this right, you'll make more over the course of those two trades than you would had you held the stock throughout the pullback.

If you're really good and have a keen sense you can short the pullbacks and make nearly triple the amount you would holding throughout the ups and downs.

However, while the market is consolidating or clearly at the bottom of a downtrend, it's a bit hard to get in a short (or a long even) for more than a few days and feel confident of your trade. Since the downtrend has lasted so long its become stale and it is possible that any shorts you make could easily go up. But when the market has changed directions and established a new trend you have a few months to confidently execute successive swing trades. (I find it fun to have a few to pillage on the side, as well.)

I always tend to lose a bit around a trend change but my goal in the future is to determine a change in trend quickly and accurately. You certainly don't want to jump the gun but if the market's changing, I want to more efficiently get out of my trades going the old direction and jump on the bandwagon of the new direction. This will save me a great deal of frustration and cash in the future.

ALK - Bought

Bought ALK at $25.52.

Watchlist & Stock Picks 12/12/08

Still liking the longs I've picked.

LONG:

QQQQ - might be ripe tomorrow if it makes the set-up
GSIC
ALK
AAWW
CLF
AUO
XME
MTH
CMI
DIS
FSS
APOG

DIS - Bought

Bought DIS at $23.56. As always, I'm going for a 5% win.

Moving Averages

Moving averages are exactly what they sound like - a line that represents the average trading activity within a specified time range that moves as time progresses. These lines, coupled with a candlestick chart, are great a visual aid to help you see what the market or a specific stock has been doing in the recent past. They also help you to estimate what it will do in the near future. As a swing trader, moving averages have proven to be invaluable.

I use, per Swing-Trade-Stocks.com, the 10- and the 30-day moving average along with the distant 200-day moving average. The 200-day average gives you a broad idea of where the ceiling or the floor resides while the 10- and the 30-day moving average show you very recent trends for the stock.

For a How-To on using moving averages strategically, I'd strongly recommend reading here - Swing-Trade-Stocks.com says it best.

FSS - Bought

Just bought FSS at $7.70.

Watchlist & Stock Picks 12/11/08

Well, I'm going to continue to look at yesterday's list and see if anything looks tempting.

The two longs that I most want to trade once they come out of their pullback are:

LONG:

ALK
ARBA

Update:

Here are the long candidates who have, or are about to have a Moving Average cross - meaning they're most likely going to go up for a while:

LONG:

FSS
FARO
CLF
AUO
XME
CMI
DIS
MTH

ARBA - Bought to Cover

I bought to cover ARBA at $8.42 for a loss per share of $1.44 and a return on investment of -20.6%.

I might buy it long after its pullback is finished, once it has established an uptrend when the Moving Averages cross again.

RECAP

SS ARBA @ $6.98
BC ARBA @ $8.42

Watchlist & Stock Picks 12/10/08

Alright, we're definitely getting jerked around a bit here but that's OK - we're prepared for either direction until we get a definitive trend. Again, I keep saying this but it seems like a day trader's market - it might be hard to hold something for the whole "swing."

SHORT:

AMMD

ANGO

ANN - looks like it has made the set up - we just need it to to go down today for a possible short sell.

IPAR

CRA

AG

AGU

BJS

CAM

SM

LONG:

These I'm still recommending as longs - but it looks like after yesterday afternoon we're starting a pullback. So, let's wait on these but keep them in the background until we come out of the pullback... or in case there is no pullback!

EVT

FSS

FARO

DIS

MTH

ARBA

CMI

ALK

AAWW

GSIC - Strategy

I think I'm going to try an experiment with GSIC - I bought it at $9.84 and it went down for a number of weeks - today it is edging on getting back in the positive and I'm in at just the right time to execute a position trade instead of a swing-trade on this one. If the stock is really having a change in trend and it is going to start going up for the next few months, I think I'll hold on and ride the wave up.

This would be my first position trade - I'm also going to be on the lookout for any signs that the stock is only having a minor correction before going back down. I don't want to be in the negative again, that's for sure.

CMI - Sold

Sold CMI at $27.05 for a gain per share of $1.25 and a return on investment of 4.84%. This was a day trade.

I'm glad I had this win - I have another doozy of a loss I'm going to sell before year-end during it's next pullback, as it was a short sell that went up. This will help keep my annual ROI a little higher than it would be with the upcoming loss alone.

RECAP:

B CMI @ $25.78
S CMI @ $27.03

CMI - Bought

Bought CMI at $25.78.

Watchlist & Stock Picks 12/9/08

Well, I'm not liking the market as a whole for shorting or longing. Here's my list with the added message that it may very well not be ripe for trading until we can see a definite pattern. Also, we're always looking for the set-up don't trade it until it makes the right candlestick pattern (if you follow the strategy, of course).

SHORT:

AMMD

ANGO

ANN

FUQI

IPAR

CRA

LONG:

These look like they're trying to reverse their downtrend and go up. You generally want to trade with the market trend... but I'm not too sure what we've been getting lately in terms of trends.

EVT

FSS

FARO

DIS

FUN

MTH

ARBA

AACC

GSIC

CMI

ALK - oddly I'm still liking this one despite it giving me the run-around. Looks like we're getting a pullback before another possible rally.

Brokerage Commission Structure Comparison

Below is a comparison between various discount brokerage firms at varying levels of purchase frequencies. While commission fees are a large determinant in which brokerage you might employ, I would encourage you to consider all aspects of a brokerage firm - especially ease of use and customer service - before you give any of them your business. 

If you were to purchase and sell 5 securities a month (10 trades) you would pay:

Zecco - $0

SogoElite - $20

Just2Trade - $25

SogoTrade - $30

If you were to purchase and sell 10 securities a month (20 trades) you would pay:

SogoElite - $30

Zecco - $45

Just2Trade - $50

SogoTrade - $60

If you were to purchase and sell 15 securities a month (30 trades) you would pay:

SogoElite - $40

Just2Trade - $75

Zecco - $90

SogoTrade - $90

If you were to purchase and sell 30 securities a month (60 trades) you would pay:

SogoElite - $70

Just2Trade - $150

SogoTrade - $180

Zecco - $225

Last Updated 12/8/08

Just2Trade

Just2Trade claims that it has "the best pricing in the industry." And at $2.50 per trade, it very well might if you don't trade very often. For $2.50 per trade you get free streaming quotes, an options screener, stock alerts, and most impressive is a free tax preparation software called Maxit - a feature similar to what Zecco offers but at a hefty monthly fee. Additionally, their margin interest rates are very low and their cash balance interest rates are high compared to others in the industry.

You can execute just about any order type as well as no limit or minimum on the number of shares you trade, nor limits on the price of the stock. They offer a trading platform called the "Trading Desk" but you have direct access to the platform from their website; unlike SogoElite's platform.

Just2Trade's Extended Hours trading starts earlier and ends later than SogoElite. The firm offers Extended Hours trading from 7:30a to 9:30a and again from 4p to 8p for an additional fee of $.003 per share. 

Just2Trade has a $2,500 dollar minimum and requires that all applicants have at least 2 years of trading experience. With that said, Just2Trade advises novice traders not to chose them as their brokerage of choice. Something to think about considering they do not offer the bells and whistles that many traders rely upon.

After reading a few other reviews I'm gathering that customer service is not Just2Trade's strong-suit. They offer a discount service and that's exactly what you're getting with multiple day turn-arounds for e-mail inquiries.

Compare Just2Trade to:

SogoElite

SogoTrade

Zecco

See the Commission Structure Comparison

Last Updated 12/8/08

ICON - Bought to Cover

Well, I bought to cover ICON at $9.23 for a loss per share of $2.11 and a 29% loss (!). I don't want to end the year with too many stocks in the red and now's the time to resolve that. This one hurt to buy to cover and it puts me in the red for the month, but not by much and I have a little more time to get back right-side up.

RECAP:

SS ICON @ $7.12
BC ICON @ $9.23

Watchlist & Stock Picks 12/8/08

Well, I'm still a little leery of the market, but I'm also ready to get back in the game after Thursday and Friday "off." I may not buy anything today, but I've got my watchlist ready in case I find something I like! If I do find something I like, it might very well be a short, day trade.

SHORT:

ARTC

ATAC

CPRT

CRA

FUQI

STP

Here's a list of stocks that have broken out to the upside due to this morning's rally that I'm considering for a day trade long (or maybe even a swing trade long depending upon the market):

LONG:

EVT

SDXC

QQQQ

FSS

FARO

DIS

SYMC

Taxes: Preparing for Year-End

Just a quick and simple reminder that as the year ends one strategy some trader's employ is to sell stock holdings that are in the negative. This reduces your yearly return on investment but it also limits the amount of taxes you pay for the year by allowing you to write off the losses.

It all depends on how to see it: glass half-full or glass half-empty. Oh.. and of course check with your tax advisor before you jump in a sell!

Trading Journal

The only way to really know how successful you've been is to keep a journal of your trades. By documenting each trade, you'll have tangible evidence of your performance - are you increasing or decreasing your return on investment per trade? Are your wins getting larger and your losses getting smaller? Or, heaven forbid - are your losses getting larger and your wins getting smaller? You can really see your habits, downfalls, and triumphs as a trader.

Documenting your trades is the only way to improve. How can you increase your successes when you can't remember your failures? 

While its not thrilling to type or write in your losses, it certainly is on your wins. The act of documenting your trades reinforces the positive and helps you learn from your mistakes. Additionally, you can develop extra trading strategies that can help your moral - while I'm all about shooting for the stars, if you've had a few previous below average months but you finally meet your goal... you can stop trading, seal in your wins for the month and pick back up the next month. 

If you don't keep a journal now, start - and I am willing to bet you'll see yourself improve (even if you're already really good!)

If nothing else, you'll have a list of your trading activity to get a head start on your taxes before your 1099 comes in!

Zecco

Zecco is an online trading brokerage firm that gives its clients 10 free trades per month with a minimum account balance of $2,500 and charges $4.50 per trade after the 10 free. The feature that interests me that I haven't seen with another brokerage is their ZeccoShare Community - you can compare your return on investment to other members. Nothing like a little healthy competition to get your ROI up!

Another feature I like about Zecco is that they offer candlestick charts, so once you've put together your watchlist you only need your Zecco account to watch the stock at the point of purchase. This makes trading basically a one-step procedure. Other brokerages that offer this same feature are SogoElite, and those that do not are SogoTrade.

Zecco is like many other online brokerages in that they offer Real Time Quotes, a Stock Screener, short sell, buy to cover, sell, and buy orders as well as Options Trading and Mutual Fund orders. In their Premium Tools section they offer Tax Planning tools for a monthly fee of $24.99 that will inevitably make reporting your earnings or losses easier come April (something Just2Trade offers for free). Zecco will also monitor your portfolio's performance using typical reporting methods or your own parameters. 

Their trading center is great in that it puts the most important function in clear view - once you click the "Trading" tab you'll see your holdings at the bottom and right up top are your fields to place an order. Also, whether you're looking at your trading center, history, balance, executions, or quotes page you can place an order with the same transaction panel located at the top of the window.  It's pretty no-nonsense. Somewhat like SogoElite's platform.

Overall I like the young, hip feel of Zecco as well as the layout of the site that makes trading easy. After all, trading is the main goal, right?

Compare Zecco to:

SogoElite

SogoTrade

Just2Trade

See the Commission Structure Comparison

Last Updated 12/8/08

Watchlist & Stock Picks 12/5/08

I'm going to sit the market out again today and continue to nurse the stocks that I have. We'll get back into the game on Monday - I'm just not liking the market at the moment.

Happy Trading!

ALK - Sold

I sold ALK at $25.48. It is a bit complicated as I bought the stock on two different occasions at two different purchase prices, but the average price was $24.87 for a gain per share of $0.61 and a return on investment of 1.6%. Not a great return, but considering I was really upside down in this stock a few days ago, I'll take the small win just because its not a loss on this stock!

Additionally, ALK went up strongly for the past 3 days and today's volume is not as strong as yesterday's...I could be wrong but I feel the buying power is running out and it might head back down for a few days. I'd rather have my capital than wait out another pullback. No thank you.

RECAP:

B ALK @ $24.87
S ALK @ $25.48

Watchlist & Stock Picks 12/4/08

Well, let's see what the market decides to do today! I think I'm going to refrain from getting in anything new today and just nurse the one's I've been holding onto for a while. It looks to me that we might be in the beginning stages of a consolidation period.

If I happen to find a few that I like the look of I'll be sure to update my stock picks later on. I imagine I could find some to "recommend" now, but I don't want to suggest something that I wouldn't do...just doesn't feel right.

Good luck!

AUO - Bought to Cover

Just bought to cover AUO at a small loss, it just didn't want to go down and I'm ready for my capital back. Bought at $5.80 for a $0.10 per share loss and a negative return on investment of 1.75%.

RECAP:

SS AUO @ $5.70
BC AUO @ $5.80

Watchlist & Stock Picks 12/3/08

Despite the up day yesterday, I'm sticking with my short stock picks. We're getting alternating ups and downs - not quite a reliable trend to swing trade on currently. It is definitely more of a Day Trader's market. I'm not a real big "fundamentals" trader, but they did announce yesterday that we're officially in a recession - let's see what impact that has on the market today. Again, keep the stops close and take the small gains to stay right side up!

There's nothing new today and here they are in no special order... it's hard to have favorites when I don't quite know what the market's going to do today!

SHORT:

MTH

QQQQ

CCE

EK

FARO

DIS

FUN

HUM

ICON

KELYA

ICON - Short Sold

Just short sold ICON at $7.12. Again, I'll probably go for a small win on this one simply given how choppy the market is.

QQQQ - Bought to Cover

Just Bought to cover QQQQ at $27.03 for a gain of $0.90 per share and only a 3.22% return on investment. I wanted a bit more and probably could have made a few more pennies had I stayed in but I'm taking my own advice, given the current market conditions, and taking the small wins.

RECAP:

SS QQQQ@ $27.93
BC QQQQ@ $27.03

Watchlist & Stock Picks 12/2/08

We had quite the down day yesterday which was great for my shorts and my short sell picks even though I couldn't get in them all. I'm still watching a few from yesterday along with several new ones. Others have fallen off my watchlist because I feel they went down too far yesterday to still safely make a profit from if you were to get in today.

Happy trading, let's see if we get another solid down day today in this unstable market.

SHORT:

My favorites:

QQQQ

MTH

QLGC

The remaining:

CAS

CCE

CPA

HWCC

APOG - possibly still room to make money in

EK

EWO

FARO

FSS

DIS

FUN

HUM

ICON

ISCA

KELYA

OSTK

XTEX

QQQQ - Short Sell

Short sold QQQQ at $27.93.

I'm really eyeing APOG at the moment but I think I might wait until lunch time to be sure of it's down day "status."

I'm excited that most of my picks have gone down today - I'm disappointed that I haven't enough funds to buy them all!